BestEvidence

01:23 - Global risk posed by U.S. banking system

02:30 - Repo crisis preceded PANDEMIC!!!

03:32 - WEF’s tote board of risk narratives

04:05 - F.D.I.C. Quarterly Banking Profile (3Q2022): real risk of banking crisis 05:26 - Chart 7 of Quarterly Banking Profile - massive balance sheet losses 08:41 - Why debt-based securities dropped in value by $690 billion

11:40 - Composite balance sheet (entire industry) in Quarterly Banking Profile

14:33 - Why assets on banks’ balance sheet are vastly over-valued

17:12 - That entire banking industry is dead broke, evident from composite liabilities

20:10 - Banks’ counter-measures to their insolvency

21:32 - FHLB advances: panic borrowing

24:57 - Repo market: more panic borrowing

26:54 - FRED’s tale of three crises

35:23 - Role of FHLB advances in last three crises

39:52 - Panic borrowing now - Fed fanning flames of new crisis

41:25 - New era has dawned: Snake Eating Its Own Tail This video builds on and extends the explosive (but largely overlooked AFAIK) analysis done by Chris Whalen, “Is JPMorgan Chase Insolvent?” While Whalen is imo the best independent bank analyst in the business, he doesn’t have a crystal ball. (At least I couldn’t find one when I ransacked his home many moons ago.) . He thus didn’t have access to the F.D.I.C.’s Quarterly Banking Profile for the 3rd quarter of 2022, which came out three days later. Whalen’s analysis focused on the dubious valuations of bank assets, which is certainly germane as far as they go and are discussed in greater detail in this video. The real action in the third quarter QBP, though, is on the liability side of the industry’s balance sheet.  You can find more detailed written treatments of this video and others I’ve done at my substack: https://bestevidence.substack.com/ * * * * * Links Chris Whalen’s November 2022 (in)solvency assessment of banking industry: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/is-jpmorgan-chase-insolvent

World Economic Forum’s 98-page global risk assessment (2023 edition): https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Global_Risks_Report_2023.pdf

F.D.I.C. Quarterly Banking Profile: https://www.fdic.gov/analysis/quarter... Basel III regulations - Definition of capital excludes goodwill: https://www.bis.org/basel_framework/chapter/CAP/30.htm

New York Fed’s take on Federal Home Loan Board (FHLB) during GFC: https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr357.pdf

 https://mishtalk.com/economics/the-annual-interest-rate-payment-on-government-debt-is-850-billion-and-rising-fast