The political facade of the pro-Kiev coalition is crumbling as Western support wavers and Ukrainian forces face irreversible defeats on the battlefield. The latest Ramstein meeting, now co-chaired by Germany and Britain without the dominant U.S. presence, underscored the growing fatigue among Ukraine’s backers.

Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin refused to attend in person, joining only via video link—a clear signal of Washington’s diminishing enthusiasm to pay for war in Europe. The desperate Ukrainian leader could not claim anything new except to demand more weapons, especially air defense systems, in particular, American Patriot systems. Germany’s pledge of IRIS-T systems, a handful of missiles, and outdated Leopard tanks only highlighted Europe’s inability to sustain meaningful military aid without Washington. The absence of substantial commitments from other participants confirmed what many already suspected: Ukraine’s arsenal is running dry, and its allies are losing interest.

Meanwhile, behind-the-scenes diplomacy between Moscow and Washington has sent shockwaves through Kiev. Reports of Trump’s envoy, Steven Witkoff, coming to St. Petersburg to meet with President Putin have fueled panic. The lack of official denials from Russia and the vague statements about “diplomatic engagement” only deepen the assurance that Ukraine’s fate is being decided without its input. The recent U.S.-Russia consultations in Istanbul, which deliberately avoided any mention of Ukraine in their bland official readouts, further suggest a looming backroom deal. Ukrainian experts fear that Washington and Moscow are negotiating a ceasefire at Kiev’s expense, with Zelensky’s regime increasingly seen as an obstacle to peace rather than a partner.

On the frontlines, the situation is even more dire. Russian forces have crushed Ukraine’s incursions into Kursk and Belgorod, with the remnants of ground down Ukrainian brigades now fleeing in disarray. The strategic Gornal Monastery turned into a stronghold where Ukrainian troops had dug in, is now being abandoned under relentless Russian fire. Drone footage confirms columns of retreating soldiers scrambling toward Sumy, only to face artillery barrages and executions by their own nationalist “barrier troops” for desertion. Meanwhile, the Russian army is already in control of at least four Ukrainian settlements in this direction.

With Russian troops just 25 km away from Sumy, a full-scale offensive looms. Ukrainian generals admit that they lack the reserves to hold the line, as Moscow’s forces are establishing a buffer zone near its border. Unconfirmed reports of North Korean troops bolstering the Russian assaults have further demoralized Kiev’s exhausted army.

As Washington and Moscow inch toward negotiations, Zelensky’s regime faces annihilation—both militarily, under Russia’s impending summer offensive, and politically, as the West abandons its failed proxy. The only question left is whether Kiev’s surrender will be negotiated over its head or dictated on the battlefield.

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