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A staggering $11 trillion in US government debt needs to be borrowed or refinanced over the next 12 months.
Treasury Department officials are faced with painful choices, whether to borrow at very high rates, locked in for ten years or longer? Or instead borrow for one year or less, but at massive volumes?
Foreign governments and pension funds are also showing far less interest in absorbing new US government bonds, and are demanding ever-higher yields to compensate for inflation and policy risk.
China's government, however, can borrow at far below half the rate Washington pays, across all maturities. And Chinese companies are paying the lowest interest rates in their history to access new capital. That represents a long-term structural advantage to Chinese policymakers and industry.
Closing scene, Hong Kong
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South China Morning Post, China cuts US Treasury holdings for third month amid trade war, debt ceiling fears
Zerohedge, Yields Spike After Very Ugly, Tailing 30Y Auction Sparks Steepening Fears
ZH, Very Ugly, Tailing 10Y Auction Sees Slide In Foreign Demand, Plunge In Bid To Cover
ZH, Ugly, Tailing 3Y Auction Sees Worst Foreign Demand Since 2023
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ugly-tailing-3y-auction-sees-worst-foreign-demand-2023
Managing Risk in the Face of Historic U.S. Debt Refinancing
What Is Happening with Mortgage Interest Rates?
https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/what-is-happening-with-mortgage-interest-rates
How the Federal Reserve Actually Affects Mortgage Rates
Wall Street Journal, Trump and Bessent Bring New Style to Managing America’s Debt
Banking on the Belt and Road: Insights from a new global dataset of 13,427 Chinese development projects
https://docs.aiddata.org/ad4/pdfs/Banking_on_the_Belt_and_Road_Executive_Summary.pdf
China 10-Year Government Bond Yield
https://tradingeconomics.com/china/government-bond-yield
What do falling Chinese yields tell us?
https://www.dws.com/insights/cio-view/charts-of-the-week/cotw-2025/chart-of-the-week-20250117/
X, Corporate borrowing costs in the US have never been lower than China’s today
https://x.com/UnHedgedChatter/status/1945694176542412931
Mirrored - Inside China Business
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