CHINA could ignite tensions in the Taiwan Strait with a terrifying "show of force" to mark the centenary anniversary of the founding of the nation's communist party this July.
Beijing is preparing for actions that will mark the 100th anniversary of the foundation of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) on July 1. The Chinese military has announced it will use the centenary celebrations as an opportunity to “forge absolute loyalty” to the CCP and Chinese president Xi Jinping. Reunification with Taiwan is predicted to be one of the main focus points of the Chinese politburo's patriotic celebrations.
Speaking to Express.co.uk, Professor Steve Tsang, Director of the China Institute at SOAS University, said: "It is likely that Beijing will organise a show of force in the Taiwan Strait to mark the centenary of the founding of the Communist Party.
"But, I very much doubt that it will start an incident deliberately, as the risk of unintended escalation is high.
"Xi Jinping is a risk-taker compared to his two immediate predecessors but he is not reckless.
"With the Biden Administration articulating a clear and strong commitment to Taiwan and the disparity between overall US and Chinese military might still significant, Xi is highly unlikely to want to get into a situation over Taiwan from which he will need to step back under American pressure.
He may push to within the limits of American tolerance at this point but no more.
"He will only do so when he judges that China can force the USA to back off over Taiwan or be confident that the PLA can defeat the US forces that may be sent to help Taiwan defend itself or when there is an administration in Washington which is noncommittal to the security of Taiwan."
One political analyst who spoke to the New York Times said the Chinese politburo is "worried about a collapse at any time, that a small protest could trigger an avalanche of a revolution.
Mr Wu Qiang added: “They have tried their best to eliminate all noise, dissent and objections.”
President Xi Jinping has made it one of his personal ambitions to take the island democracy of Taiwan under the control of the Communist Party that he presides over.
However, Taiwan has said it will defend its democracy to "the very end".
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