Thirteen days into the conflict between Israel and the U.S. on one side and Iran on the other, there have been no critical changes to the situation. The parties continue to exchange strikes on each other’s targets. This is the essence of the current conflict.

Iran has achieved its main goal in this confrontation. The allies have been drawn into prolonged and costly military operations. The original objectives of the operation have not been achieved. The assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei paved the way for his son to take power. He is ready to avenge his murdered father and nearly his entire family. Most of the senior leaders who were eliminated have already been replaced. Contrary to analysts’ predictions that mass protests would break out if instability arose in the country, the people have rallied together.

It can be assumed that the Iranian navy and air force have been destroyed, as the allies’ representatives regularly remind us. However, these components were never key to Iran’s armed forces and existed only nominally. After the theocrats came to power in 1979, the Islamic Republic prepared for war with the U.S. by creating thousands of underground bases and storage facilities.

Despite the fact that the war was being fought in the air, Israel and the US found themselves in a stalemate. A quick decapitation operation was expected to be a triumph that would force Iran to surrender. But this remained just a plan. President Donald Trump clearly did not expect a protracted conflict; the successful operation in Venezuela had inspired him too much.

Now, the allies are faced with a difficult choice. They cannot increase the number of airstrikes because nearly a third of the entire US combat aircraft fleet is already involved. Moreover, experience shows that air strikes do not achieve the desired result of changing the country’s regime. The only other option is to launch a ground operation, for which no one is prepared. Even the most mobile units would take at least two to three weeks to deploy. Every minute of war costs a fortune.

Iran understands that time is on its side. Therefore, it is systematically destroying the oil industry facilities of Arab countries in the Gulf. Tehran has already demonstrated that American military bases in these countries cause more trouble than they prevent.

The White House lacks the political will to either end or further escalate the conflict. Donald Trump can only declare a public victory over Iran. Meanwhile, the price of oil and gas continues to rise inexorably around the world.

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