According to Kirsch, the COVID shots have already killed an estimated 200,000 Americans, a far higher number than the 15,386 deaths reported to the U.S. Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) as of September 17, 2021. You can find all the research for Episode 1 of the “False Narrative Takedown” series on http://SKirsch.io/vaccine-resources

More Than 200,000 Have Already Died From the COVID Jab in the US
By Joseph Mercola
https://www.lewrockwell.com/2021/10/joseph-mercola/more-than-200000-have-already-died-from-the-covid-jab-in-the-us/
Between the documentation on his website and the video, you get a detailed in-depth understanding of how to do this and how Kirsch came to the conclusions made. Here, I will simply provide a summary rundown of Kirsch calculations and conclusions:

Propensity to report = same as in previous years
Number of domestic deaths in the VAERS database = 6,167 as of August 27, 2021
Under-reporting factor for serious events = 41 (i.e., for every 41 events, only one is reported)
Background VAERS death rate = 500 per year (this background death number will be subtracted twice, as most COVID jab recipients are receiving two doses. This gives us a very conservative estimate)
Excess deaths calculation = (6,167 – 2 x 500) x 41 = 212,000 excess deaths