Posted 4June2020 UnHerd:
See here for full write-up and explanation: https://unherd.com/2020/06/karl-frist...
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Professor Karl Friston is a computer modelling expert, world-renowned for his contributions to neuroscience. He has been applying his "dynamic causal modelling" approach to the Covid-19 pandemic, and has reached some startling results.

- The differences between countries are not primarily down to government actions, but due to 'intrinsic' differences in the populations

- We don't yet fully understand what is driving it, although there are theories ranging from levels of vitamin D to genetic differences

- In each country, there appears to be a portion of the population that is 'not even in the game' - that is, not susceptible to Covid-19. This varies hugely between countries

- In the UK, Professor Friston estimates that portion to be at least 50%, and probably more like 80%

- The similar mortality results between Sweden (no lockdown) and the UK (lockdown) are best explained by the fact that in reality there was no difference - the impact of the legal lockdown in Professor Friston's models "literally goes away".