UnHerd, January 31, 2022

Freddie Sayers meets Dr Camilla Holten-Møller, chair of the Expert Group for Mathematical Modelling at Denmark’s public health agency ‘Statens Serum Institut’.

Read the Post article: https://unherd.com/thepost/denmarks-state-modeller-why-weve-ended-all-covid-laws/

Listen to the podcast version: https://shows.acast.com/lockdowntv-with-freddie-sayers/episodes/denmarks-state-modeller-why-weve-ended-all-covid-laws

Holten-Møller was in charge of producing the models before Christmas that informed Danish policy, and her group’s updated advice in January led to the cancellation of all Danish Covid restrictions (even as case numbers continue to climb to all-time highs). She joins UnHerd to discuss Denmark's radical new policy, data modelling and why Omicron might be the end of the pandemic.

// Timecodes //

00:00 - 01:25 - Introduction
01:25 - 05:20 - Why is Denmark dropping all its covid restrictions?
05:20 - 07:49 - Is this the end of the pandemic?
07:49 - 11:03 - If Omicron is more mild, is it now a good time to catch covid?
11:03 - 12:48 - Who had the better covid policy - Denmark or Sweden?
12:48 - 14:07 - What’s behind Denmark’s political consensus around ending lockdown?
14:07 - 20:28 - Analysing Camilla’s covid models - how did SAGE in the UK get it so wrong?
20:28 - 27:47 - Do UK covid modellers have a bias towards more negative outcomes?
27:47 - 30:32 - Why do the modellers assume exponential growth when we know people will naturally change their behaviours?
30:32 - 33:24 - Is Camilla worried about the damage that flawed covid models could do to her field?
33:24 - 34:47 - Concluding thoughts