Breaking The Line: Russian Advances Threaten Ukraine’s Final Donbass Defenses

The battle for Donbass is approaching its critical juncture. Through grinding attritional battles Russian forces are making tactical gains that threaten to unravel Ukrainian defensive lines.

The cities of Kramatorsk and Slaviansk represent the final major defensive barrier for Ukrainian forces. Their capture would grant Russian troops significant operational freedom, largely accelerating their advance westward. The recent operations north of Pokrovsk highlighted the Russian plan to encircle this large agglomeration.

The immediate pressure is focused on Ukrainian logistics. Russian units have partially encircled key hubs like Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka, severely complicating Ukrainian supply efforts. The threat to the town of Dobropolye further tightens the noose around the Pokrovsk grouping and cuts the vital road. Control of the highway linking Dobropolye to Kramatorsk is now a primary objective, with intense fighting reported north of Zolotoy Kolodez. This area is at the tip of a narrow salient created by a recent Russian breakthrough, which Ukrainian forces are desperately but unsuccessfully trying to eliminate.

After the Russian breaking advance in early August, the hastily deployed Ukrainian reserves launched counterattacks. They managed to slightly push Russian groups back eastwards but failed to ensure their gains. According to preliminary field reports, Russian troops again broke through Ukrainian defenses. They advanced north of Dobropolye and again reached the strategic highway.

Significant Russian progress has also been reported in the Serebryansky forestry area, a large fortified region on the border of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics. Russian forces now control most of this strategic woodland, with remaining Ukrainian units retreating towards Seversk.

Russian advances are also continuing in the northern part of Kupyansk, undermining Ukrainian hopes for a territorial exchange.

Thanks to offensive and technical progress, Russian drone warfare is expanding its reach. Ukrainian soldiers complain that small FPV drones are now pounding the Kherson-Mykolaiv route. They have also reached the city of Zaporizhzhia and the entire region. These long-range strikes are also facilitated by parent drones that carry smaller FPV drones closer to their launch points, extending their destructive range deep into Ukrainian-held territory.

Amid constant setbacks on the frontlines, the Ukrainian military has intensified attacks on Russian civilian infrastructure. With the previous overage of about 300 attacks, strikes on civilian targets have increased to approximately 430 per day following the recent international summit. Unable to change the power balance on the battlefield, Kyiv again turned to deliberate terrorism aimed at causing civilian casualties for political effect.

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