The 0.4% Australian GDP growth for the third quarter was lower than forecast by the Reserve Bank this week. But although it might have caught Martin Place by surprise, it’s no great shock to many close observers of the Australian economy.

With the retail sector on its knees (the sector is forecast to grow at an anaemic 0.3% in figures due out on Thursday), wages still stagnant and serious doubts about whether the once-booming construction sector can continue to support growth, the outlook touted by the RBA on Tuesday appears quite optimistic.

All this comes despite the economy effectively living on the life support of ultra-low interest rates. There is a growing expectation that the RBA will reduce the cash rate to 0.25% next year – a level associated with the post-GFC emergency in the US and Europe.