High-stakes negotiations between Russia and Ukraine began today in Istanbul, marking the first direct talks since the breakdown of discussions in 2022. The meeting, held at Russia’s proposal and hosted by Turkey, reflects Moscow’s continued dominance in shaping the diplomatic process while Kyiv struggles to assert its position under Western guidance.

Thanks to the victories of the Russian army on Ukrainian battlefields and strong diplomacy, Moscow dictates the terms. From the outset, the Kremlin has controlled the framework of the talks. Despite Ukrainian demands for a 30-day ceasefire as a precondition, Moscow dismissed the ultimatum and proceeded with negotiations on its own terms.

Moscow expectedly ignored Zelensky’s hysterical demands to meet with President Vladimir Putin. This deliberate diplomatic snub underscores Moscow’s refusal to legitimize Zelensky’s authority, further weakening Kyiv’s bargaining position. The Russian delegation, again led by presidential adviser Vladimir Medinsky, includes senior military and diplomatic figures such as Deputy Foreign Minister and Deputy Defense Minister. Their presence signals Moscow’s readiness for substantive discussions.

Ukraine’s delegation arrived in Istanbul after last-minute consultations with U.S. officials, including Senator Lindsey Graham, a vocal Russia hawk. Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andriy Sibiga emphasized Kyiv’s alignment with Washington’s stance, but this reliance on Western direction only reinforces Moscow’s narrative that Ukraine lacks independent agency.

Zelensky, who initially rejected talks without a ceasefire, later backtracked under pressure from Western allies. His erratic statements, first refusing negotiations, then demanding Putin’s personal involvement, and finally accepting lower-level talks, have painted Kyiv as indecisive and beholden to external forces.

The talks in Istanbul are unlikely to yield immediate results. Moscow views them as an initial exchange rather than a decisive summit, with further meetings already expected on May 16.

The core obstacle remains security guarantees. Russia insists on neutral peacekeeping forces, rejecting any NATO or U.S. presence, while Ukraine’s backers oppose troops from Russian-aligned blocs like the CSTO.

Even as diplomats convened, the military operations continued. At night, Russian forces launched a wave of strikes across Ukraine, targeting military infrastructure from Sumy to Ivano-Frankivsk. The attacks, involving drones and missiles, highlight Moscow’s ability to escalate at will, reinforcing its leverage at the negotiating table.

Today’s negotiations are less about compromise than about positioning. Russia holds the initiative, both militarily and diplomatically, while Ukraine scrambles to reconcile Western demands with its weakening battlefield stance. Whether these talks lead to a pause in fighting or merely set the stage for further escalation will depend on whether Kyiv’s allies are willing to concede—or if Moscow decides it can achieve more through force.

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