Fragile Agreements Can Not Stop Escalation In Ukraine
The Prisoner
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Despite the ongoing Russian and US efforts to deescalate the hostilities, the conflict in Ukraine is still marked by massive drone and missile attacks. The night of April 9, witnessed some of the most extensive cross-border strikes in recent months, with both sides reporting substantial interceptions and damages.

According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, Ukrainian forces launched 158 aircraft-type UAVs across 11 regions. Russian air defenses reportedly intercepted and destroyed all of them, preventing any significant damage. The majority targeted the southern and western regions, as well as Crimea, along with maritime zones in the Azov and Black Seas. Notably, Ukrainian drones penetrated deep into Russian territory, for the first time reaching the Orenburg region – approximately 1,300 km from the frontline – where four UAVs were shot down. In Rostov region, Ukrainian drones reportedly targeted a power substation in Novocherkassk, which is another violation of moratorium on strikes against energy infrastructure.

On the other hand, Russian forces conducted another large-scale drone attack on Ukrainian territory, launching 55 Geran-type attack drones and decoys from multiple directions. Ukrainian air defense forces claimed success in intercepting 32 of the incoming drones, primarily in northern and eastern regions. The Russian strikes targeted military logistics and production facilities across several key locations.

In Kharkiv, precision strikes hit a military base with storage sites containing medical supplies and field hospital equipment. The strikes were followed by an attack on the local ASAL confectionery factory – repurposed as a military logistics center in the war-torn city.

The city of Dnipro came under simultaneous strikes on a logistics hub and the steel plant, where Western-supplied armored vehicles were undergoing repairs, resulting in major fires across the industrial complex. An aviation sports club turned into a military maintenance site was struck in Apostolovo, where two civilian aircraft and support vehicles were destroyed.

A devastating strike destroyed a suspected Ukrainian Special Forces position hidden near the residential areas in Kramatorsk.

These developments unfolded against the backdrop of a crumbling “energy truce”. Ukraine has consistently violated this agreement with daily strikes on Russian energy facilities. While the Russian military is probably preparing to take revenge after the end of the truce in ten days.

The conflict shows no signs of de-escalation, revealing the fragility of temporary agreements with the Kiev regime. Amid the significant geopolitical shifts around the conflict, Moscow and Washington are set to meet again for negotiations on April 10, while the United States is officially curtailing its presence in Rzeszow, a key logistics hub for supplying Ukraine in Poland, coupled with plans to halve its military presence in Eastern Europe.

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