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Update on the conflict in Ukraine for January 5, 2025…
- Ukrainian forces continue to suffer irreversible attrition prompting calls by Ukraine’s Western sponsors to begin drafting 18 year olds;
- A French-trained and equipped brigade of over 4,500 troops is under investigation for large-scale desertions and reports of “abuse of power;”
- Ukraine is losing manpower and equipment faster than it can be supplied to Ukraine, especially trained manpower and the larger units it is organized under;
- A properly trained brigade can take up to 3 years to stand up, equip, and prepare for combat;
- Western media admits Ukrainian forces are facing difficulties in holding Pokrovsk in the Donbass region as well as its shrinking area of operation in Russia’s Kursk region;
- The fundamentals contributing to Ukraine’s incremental military collapse have not and cannot be addressed by its Western sponsors meaning only negotiations or more likely, Western intervention to create a Syria-style “buffer zone” will hold off a total collapse of Ukraine’s fighting capacity;
- The US is likely waiting to maximize the cost imposed on Russian forces, its economy, and its geopolitical standing as the US places pressure along all of its periphery as the conflict in Ukraine continues;
Resources:
Business Insider - Ukraine is investigating its special French-trained brigade after reports of mass desertion and command problems (Jan. 3, 2025):
NPR - Ukrainian soldiers and shopkeepers hold on as Russia's siege of Pokrovsk tightens(Jan. 2, 2025):
https://www.npr.org/2025/01/02/nx-s1-5243882/russia-ukraine-war-pokrovsk
France 24 - Desertions spark panic, and pardons, in Ukraine's army (Dec. 27, 2024):
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20241227-desertions-spark-panic-and-pardons-in-ukraine-s-army
RFE/RL - Russia Advances, Ukraine Struggles, The War Turns Grimmer For Kyiv (Jan. 3, 2025):
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russia-pokrovsk-donbas-war-offensive/33261303.html
US DoD - Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine (Dec. 30, 2024):
The New Atlas - Will French Jets, Additional US Arms Help Change the Tide in Ukraine? (June 9, 2024):
https://youtu.be/HPLMEH5cmxU?si=umXdy-67Pl10tY8D&t=2247
The New Atlas - Ukraine’s Manpower Crisis: No Amount of Money or Aid Can Solve It (Mar. 13, 2024):
https://youtu.be/9LuLsmOUFYo?si=lzQulRNagfw2QqyW
France 24 - Macron to supply Ukraine with Mirage 2000-5 warplanes and train pilots and troops in France (Jun. 2024):
US Army War College Quarterly - Expanding Brigade Combat Teams: IS the Training Base Adequate? (2017):
https://press.armywarcollege.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2875&context=parameters
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