Moscow continues to adhere to the Victory Day ceasefire regime starting the next night, despite Kyiv’s refusal. This decision comes amid the new wave of provocations launched by the Ukrainian military, coordinated by its foreign patrons.

The night of May 7 was marked by intense exchange of large-scale strikes in rear regions. The Ukrainian military continues persistently probing Russian air defenses near Moscow with drone strikes, in an attempt to test vulnerabilities ahead of the upcoming Victory Day celebrations.  Despite Kyiv’s claims of targeting military-industrial facilities, these strikes appear largely symbolic, aimed at generating propaganda rather than achieving strategic gains. Having no means to inflict any significant damage to the Russian capital, Kyiv is playing media muscles trying to threaten dozens of foreign leaders, who are coming to Russia.

In their turn, Russian forces have conducted devastating missile and drone strikes across Ukraine, targeting energy infrastructure and military facilities. The Russian military retaliates to Ukrainian provocations with ballistic missiles and kamikaze drones, pounding Zaporozhzhie, Dnipro, Kharkiv, and Kyiv. A notable hit in Kyiv, likely involving Iskander missiles, triggered secondary explosions, suggesting a strike on ammunition stocks or air defense positions.

Simultaneously, Ukrainian forces do not stop bloody attempts to breach Russian defenses near Tyotkino in the Kursk region, aiming to establish a new foothold on Russian territory. All their efforts have been repelled by artillery, airstrikes, and drone attacks, with scattered Ukrainian assault groups retreating. Kyiv’s objective appears twofold: politically, to undermine Moscow’s peace initiatives by demonstrating an ability to occupy some Russian soil, and militarily, to divert Russian forces from the Donbass.

In the Donbass, Russian forces continue advancing, securing key positions near Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka. On May 6, the Russian military declared victory in Lisovka, a strategic stronghold south of Pokrovsk, where battles lasted for seven months. Notably, progress has been made in the Seversk direction, where the front had remained static for months.

Ukrainian forces, despite deploying elite units to plug holes in defense, struggle to contain Russian advances in different Donbass directions.

The recent surge in Ukrainian British-backed provocations aligns with expectations ahead of Victory Day, following a predictable pattern of heightened aggression before significant dates. Together with new escalation in the Black Sea, these costly operations, while disruptive, have so far failed to achieve decisive results. Moscow remains prepared to counter further provocations, ensuring that any attempts to undermine its military or political positions will be met with a firm response. The coming days may see additional strikes on publicly sensitive targets. If they get no results, Kyiv will traditionally pretend that nothing happened, but the broader strategic initiative remains in Russia’s favor.

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