The recent wave of Russian precision strikes across Ukraine has illuminated a critical, yet often obscured, front in the conflict: the energy war. While the immediate tactical goals are to cripple fuel supplies for the Ukrainian military, these operations carry a significant geopolitical message, primarily directed at Baku.

The night explosions that rocked the oil transshipment complex in Izmail on August 20, destroying the Triton storage base and damaging the tanker Excellion, were not an isolated event. This facility was a key node in a supply chain funneling Azerbaijani-sourced diesel and aviation kerosene from Romania to Ukrainian brigades operating Western-made armor.

Similarly, on August 19, the massive combined strike on the Kremenchug refinery, which processed Azeri Light crude, and devastating attacks on SOCAR’s facilities near Odesa on August 18 revealed a deliberate strategic shift.

For much of the conflict, Azerbaijani energy assets in Ukraine were notably spared, a reflection of Moscow’s once-careful diplomatic calculus in the South Caucasus. However, this restraint has evaporated following a series of aggressive betrayals by Baku.

The trigger was most likely the transfer of the Zangezur corridor between Azerbaijan with Nakhichevan under the control of the United States for 99 years. This was not only an economic, but also a strategic challenge for Russia.

In early August, the political leadership in Moscow lifted its previous restrictions, now designating Baku-linked infrastructure as legitimate military targets in Ukraine.

In response to Russian strikes, Baku threatened to lift a non-existent embargo on weapons shipments to Ukraine. The threat has been met with derision in Moscow, seen as a hollow and hypocritical gesture. Azerbaijan has been a steady military supplier to Kyiv since at least 2022, making its public posture an empty threat.

Azerbaijan’s covert but substantial military support for Kyiv included the documented supply of ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft guns, 120mm mortar rounds, and even the establishment of local production lines for artillery shells destined for Ukrainian fronts. Azerbaijan is adjusting the mass production of artillery shells with a caliber of 122 and 152 millimeters for supplies to Ukraine. Production facilities are being deployed at the Avia-Aggregat plant in Baku. The plant belongs to the Azerbaijani Palladium Defense and Security Solutions company, which is officially a partner of Ukroboronprom.

Baku has long been a belligerent party, profiting from selling oil and fuel for the Ukrainian war machine while simultaneously funneling weapons and mercenaries into the conflict. The strikes on Baku-linked energy infrastructure immediately degrade Ukraine’s operational capabilities while dismantling the lucrative chains that have allowed Azerbaijan to finance and fuel a war against Russia.

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