Mike's article:

America’s Military Is in Big Trouble U.S. leaders are marching the armed forces down the path of self-destruction

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/americas-military-is-in-big-trouble/

In an interview discussing his article "America’s Military is in Big Trouble", historian Michael Vlahos argues that the U.S. military is in a state of hidden decline following decades of perceived supremacy. He criticizes American political leaders across administrations (Biden, Obama, Bush) for repeating the mantra that the U.S. has “the most incredible military,” while ignoring deeper structural weaknesses.

Vlahos introduces the concept of "peak war"—a moment of maximum military effectiveness and psychological triumph that breeds complacency. He explains that after decisive victories (like Desert Storm), militaries often lose touch with what made them successful. This complacency prevents recognition of decline until it's too late.

He contrasts this with defeats, like Vietnam, which can shock a military into reform and improvement. He notes that Russia's poor initial performance in Ukraine triggered internal military reforms, making their forces much more formidable today—possibly at or near their own "peak war" moment.

Vlahos also outlines four major ways a peak power loses its edge, starting with:

The rise of a rival power: The dominant military often underestimates emerging competitors (like China), allowing them to catch up or surpass. He recalls a visit to China in 2013, where he noticed growing confidence in Chinese military circles—a sign the U.S. was being outpaced in naval strength.

His central thesis: Victory creates blind spots. Without the humility to reassess, a dominant force is at risk of decaying from within while new challengers rise.

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