On February 28, Israel, backed by the United States, launched a large-scale air campaign against Iran. Within hours, the Persian Gulf was pulled into open conflict. States that had tried to remain neutral — Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Oman — found themselves directly affected. The risk of escalation is increasing by the day, and new participants could still be drawn in.

The strategic stakes are enormous. The Gulf contains some of the world’s largest oil and gas reserves, and even limited instability here immediately shakes global markets. Traders expect energy prices to surge, shipping costs to rise, and inflationary pressure to spread far beyond the region.

Washington deployed additional aircraft, air defenses, and naval forces, creating a concentration of power comparable to Operation Desert Storm, though without a ground invasion. The opening wave of strikes targeted command centers, radar systems, air defenses, and airfields. The aim was to paralyze Iran’s military leadership and secure immediate control of the skies.

Among the targets was Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, his compound was heavily bombed. Several senior commanders were reportedly killed in coordinated attacks as well. Strategic bombers struck underground nuclear and missile facilities, attempting to cripple Iran’s long-term capabilities.

However, the anticipated political collapse never materialized. Despite heavy losses at the top, Iran’s system adapted quickly. Successors were appointed, command channels were restored, and military units continued to function. What looked like a decapitation strike instead revealed a state structure that had prepared for exactly this scenario.

Iran’s response unfolded gradually but decisively. Waves of missiles and drones targeted American and allied bases across the region, hitting facilities in the countries of the Gulf. Ports, logistics hubs, and airfields suffered damage, while several strikes landed close to civilian districts, underscoring that the conflict had no clear front line.

Tehran’s most powerful lever remains economic pressure. The Strait of Hormuz carries a significant share of global oil exports, and even a partial disruption threatens worldwide shortages. Tankers have already come under attack, insurance rates are climbing, and shipping traffic is slowing.

For Washington, the objective is to force Iran back to negotiations and halt its nuclear and missile programs. For Tehran, success simply means endurance and the ability to impose costs on its adversaries. The broader consequences extend to China, which depends on Iranian oil, and Russia, which could profit from rising energy prices.

What began as a regional confrontation is rapidly becoming a global turning point. The outcome will not only decide Iran’s future but may also reshape the balance of power for years to come.

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