Last week, for the first time, a Russian guided heavy bomb struck the city of Dnipro, marking a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict. The bomb, believed to be a modified FAB equipped with a rocket motor, traveled an estimated 100–115 kilometers before hitting its target. The Ukrainians warn that if such strikes become frequent, major rear cities like Poltava, Mykolaiv, Dnipro, and Odessa could face a new sustained threat.

This development signals a concerning expansion of Russia’s tactical aviation capabilities. The ability to strike deep into Ukrainian territory with minimal risk suggests that Russian forces have either degraded or bypassed Ukraine’s air defense systems, including the notorious NATO assets like the Patriot, IRIS-T, and other systems. The attack on Dnipro indicates that Russia has achieved a safe operational distance, allowing its aircraft to launch strikes with devastating heavy bombs from beyond the effective range of Ukrainian surface-to-air defenses.

The strike reportedly destroyed a military facility near Dnipro where NATO equipment was being installed, further demonstrating Russia’s intent to disrupt Ukraine’s military logistics.

The bomb used in the Dnipro strike was likely part of Russia’s evolving arsenal of precision-guided munitions. Reports suggest it could be an upgraded version of the UMPK (Unified Gliding and Correction Module) kit, possibly the UMPK-PD variant with extended range. Some analysts explain that Russian heavy FAB bombs have long been pounding the outskirts of Dnipro. While the newly deployed game changer could be the Grom-E1, a rocket-assisted glide bomb derived from the Kh-38 missile, capable of striking targets up to 120 kilometers away.

Russian military correspondents have confirmed the use of rocket-boosted glide bombs, emphasizing that Ukrainian air defenses fail to intercept them. This has raised alarm among Ukrainian analysts, who fear that if these weapons enter mass deployment, heavy strikes on far rear cities could become routine.

Meanwhile, Ukraine has attempted to replicate Russia’s UMPK technology, releasing footage of a domestically modified glide bomb with a claimed range of 60 kilometers. However, doubts remain about its effectiveness, particularly given Ukraine’s reliance on commercial GPS systems vulnerable to Russian electronic warfare. While Western-supplied guided bombs like the JDAM-ER remain in use, their limited availability and susceptibility to jamming reduce their impact compared to Russia’s domestically produced systems.

The growing range of Russian heavy bombs underscores a broader shift in the conflict: Russia is not only expanding its strike range but doing so with increasing precision. While Ukraine fails to adapt its air defenses or secure more robust countermeasures, the threat to its urban and industrial centers grows sharply.

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