Col Doug Macgregor argues that claims the war with Iran will end soon or that Iran’s capabilities are nearly destroyed are not supported by evidence. Despite reports that Iran’s air defenses and missile systems have been heavily degraded, Iran is still shooting down U.S. reconnaissance platforms, continuing to launch ballistic missiles, and inflicting significant damage on Israel.

They suggest official U.S. statements—such as **Donald Trump claiming a 90% drop in Iranian missile launchers and major drone reductions—may exaggerate battlefield success, similar to overly optimistic damage assessments during the **Gulf War air campaign before **Operation Desert Storm. Leadership assassinations have also failed to destabilize Iran because replacements quickly take over.

The discussion stresses that the economic consequences are already severe:

About 25% of global oil supply is offline.

Gulf nations have cut 6.7 million barrels per day (about 33% of regional production) due to storage limits and shipping disruptions.

35% of global fertilizer exports are halted.

These disruptions threaten higher energy prices, rising electricity costs, inflation, and higher food prices worldwide. The U.S. may initially feel less impact because of domestic oil production, but since oil is a global commodity, inflation and economic pressure will eventually hit the U.S. economy as well.

The speaker concludes that:

The war is unlikely to end soon.

Global economic strain could push other countries to pressure the U.S. to end the conflict.

Major powers like China and Russia may increasingly support Iran if the crisis deepens.

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