Better Dwelling !
MARCH 25, 2022
Canadians are packing up and leaving at a fast rate, during a traditionally slow period. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data shows emigration, the act of leaving permanently, jumped in 2021. The past year showed modest gains, rising to the highest level in half a decade. The fourth quarter is what sticks out though, showing a sudden acceleration. Canada saw the largest Q4 volumes of residents leaving since the 1970s.

Canadian Residents Had The Largest Q4 Outflow Since The 1970s
Canadians left the country at a swift pace in a quarter they usually don’t plan a move. Stat Can estimates 16,901 emigrants in Q4 2021, up 215% from a year before. Annual growth doesn’t mean much, due to the outbreak’s base-effect. Don’t let the distortion allow you to dismiss the whole trend though.

Canadian Fourth Quarter Emigration
The number of Canadians estimated to have left and severed residency ties with Canada, for the fourth quarter.

Q4 1970 19,701
Q4 1971 16,717
Q4 1972 14,416
Q4 1973 22,025
Q4 1974 20,890
Q4 1975 16,537
Q4 1976 14,478
Q4 1977 16,046
Q4 1978 16,112
Q4 1979 11,498
Q4 1980 10,518
Q4 1981 12,228
Q4 1982 13,681
Q4 1983 12,735
Q4 1984 12,481
Q4 1985 11,289
Q4 1986 11,055
Q4 1987 9,295
Q4 1988 8,894
Q4 1989 8,849
Q4 1990 8,974
Q4 1991 10,006
Q4 1992 9,732
Q4 1993 11,828
Q4 1994 11,999
Q4 1995 11,028
Q4 1996 11,666
Q4 1997 11,908
Q4 1998 10,319
Q4 1999 10,821
Q4 2000 10,802
Q4 2001 13,040
Q4 2002 12,307
Q4 2003 13,148
Q4 2004 13,184
Q4 2005 13,395
Q4 2006 15,058
Q4 2007 14,656
Q4 2008 14,699
Q4 2009 13,357
Q4 2010 13,725
Q4 2011 14,988
Q4 2012 13,375
Q4 2013 14,368
Q4 2014 14,002
Q4 2015 15,385
Q4 2016 13,000
Q4 2017 10,641
Q4 2018 10,702
Q4 2019 10,853
Q4 2020 5,361
Q4 2021 16,901
Source: Statistics Canada; Better Dwelling.

Looking at the longer term, this was a huge fourth quarter. The Q4 2021 emigration was still 55.7% higher than the 5-year median for the quarter prior to 2020. It also happens to be the biggest Q4 for people leaving since 1974.

Canadian Emigration Is The Highest Since 2016
Canadian emigration showed modest growth last year, but highlights the Q4 acceleration. There were 55,935 emigrants in 2021, up 191.5% from a year before. Compared to the 5-year median prior to 2020, last year is 7.1% higher. Annual growth sounds more impressive than it was, but the longer term trend reveals it was still the highest volume since 2016.

Population Growth Is Still Positive, But Emigration Is A Problem
It’s important to understand this doesn’t mean Canada’s population isn’t growing. The country’s population is aggressively increasing due to higher immigration. For every person that leaves, Canada has managed to attract several more. Unless you’re only trying to balance your tax revenues, net growth while ignoring rising outflows isn’t a positive.

If Canadians leave in higher volumes for sustained periods, it warrants a deep dive. Just looking for much warmer weather is one thing, since it can’t be changed. However, a structural problem forms if the outflow is due to expensive housing or eroding economic opportunity. In the short term, immigration can patch over the loss of people. If they’re leaving for a reason though, immigrants take a wider look at their options.