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On the eve of a new round of talks in Istanbul, Russia and Ukraine have escalated their actions to strengthen their positions but through legally opposite means.
In May 2025, the Russian army liberated over 580 km² of territory in Ukraine, marking the most significant advance since November 2024. The offensive continues successfully in different directions. An important breakthrough was achieved in the Sumy region, with Ukrainian defenses destroyed in the border areas. According to the latest field reports, Kondratovka came under full Russian control. The Russian Northern grouping is rapidly improving the negotiation backdrop, enlarging the buffer zone near the Russian border.
Impotent on the battlefield, Kyiv responded to Russian victories with terrorist attacks, each of which only reinforces Moscow’s resolve to achieve a decisive victory over their distraught neighbor.
On the eve of the Istanbul talks, Ukrainian terrorists undermined railway tracks in the Bryansk and Kursk regions, causing civilian casualties in horrific train incidents. At the same time, the Ukrainian so-called Spider Web operation targeted Russian strategic nuclear aviation. Kyiv claimed that the operation was planned for over a year. Drones attacked airfields in the Murmansk and Irkutsk regions, with failed attempts in the Ryazan, Ivanovo, and Amur regions. The strikes mainly damaged Tu-95MS bombers. While the loss is significant, preliminary estimations indicate that it does not critically impact Russia’s nuclear deterrent capabilities.
Regardless of the damage caused, the attack on Russia’s nuclear triad had mainly political and media goals.
Despite expectations, Russia did not launch a retaliatory strike on Kyiv overnight, likely due to the impending negotiations. Instead, Russian forces targeted Ukrainian military-industrial sites and security service facilities across the country.
he negotiations themselves appear to be stalled. Ukraine submitted a memorandum reiterating unrealistic demands: no restrictions on NATO integration, Russian reparations, and non-recognition of the new territories. Russia dismissed these terms, offering its own conditions, but no breakthrough is expected. Trying to save its scattered army, Kyiv keeps pushing for a 30-day ceasefire and a prisoner exchange, but Moscow sees these proposals as non-starters.
The talks seem increasingly symbolic, with Russia forced by constant Kyiv’s provocations to shift focus to military pressure. Terrorists in power in Kyiv cannot alter the battlefield balance but may harden Russia’s position. The Istanbul talks are unlikely to yield progress, with the real decisions being made on the front lines. Moscow’s restrained response so far suggests a calculated approach, but further Ukrainian provocations may trigger a more devastating retaliation, reshaping the conflict’s trajectory.
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