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Michael McCarthy - "Statistically Impossible"
7 AFD candidates die before local elections in Germany.
Source: https://x.com/punishablepress/status/1963261219193627046
Thumbnail: https://x.com/BritanniaDailyy/status/1963275274591633484
A seventh Alternative for Germany (AfD) politician has died ahead of crucial local elections in North Rhine-Westphalia next week, intensifying speculation about what party officials and experts are calling a “statistically almost impossible” series of deaths within Germany’s surging far-right party.
The latest death brings the total to seven AfD politicians – including four candidates and three reserve list members – who have died within weeks of each other ahead of the 14 September elections. Police maintain there is no evidence of foul play, but the extraordinary cluster of deaths has sparked fierce debate across Germany and internationally, with tech billionaire Elon Musk amplifying concerns on social media.
The deaths have forced election officials to scramble to reprint ballots and invalidate thousands of postal votes already cast in multiple municipalities across Germany’s most populous state, home to 18 million people. The administrative chaos comes as AfD leads national polling at 25%, neck-and-neck with the governing Christian Democratic Union, positioning the party for potential historic gains.
The Seven Deaths
The confirmed deceased AfD politicians include:
Ralph Lange, 66, direct candidate for Blomberg council, died 28 August
Wolfgang Klinger, 71, candidate in Schwerte, died suddenly
Stefan Berendes, 59, candidate for Bad Lippspringe city council, died unexpectedly
Wolfgang Seitz, 59, candidate in Rheinberg, suffered a fatal heart attack
Three additional reserve list candidates whose identities have not been publicly disclosed
All deaths occurred between mid-August and early September, with the four primary candidates dying within a 13-day period. The latest death was confirmed by The European Conservative on Tuesday, though specific details remain undisclosed.
‘Statistically Almost Impossible’
The cluster of deaths has prompted prominent figures to question the mathematical probability of such an occurrence. German economist Professor Stefan Homburg, former director of the Institute of Public Finance at Leibniz University Hannover, declared the deaths “statistically almost impossible” in a social media post that garnered over one million views.
“According to WDR, four AfD candidates who were not excluded have died immediately before the NRW municipal election: Blomberg, Rheinberg, Schwerte, Bad Lippspringe.
Statistically almost impossible,” Homburg wrote on X.
AfD co-chair Alice Weidel amplified these concerns, sharing Homburg’s analysis with the caption “Four AfD candidates have died.” Her post was subsequently shared by Musk, who has increasingly aligned himself with the German far-right party.
Police Find No Criminal Activity
Despite the speculation, authorities have consistently stated there is no evidence of criminal activity. North Rhine-Westphalia police confirmed that initial death investigations were launched in several cases but were “quickly discontinued” after determining natural causes.
An AfD spokesperson told Politico that Ralph Lange and Wolfgang Klinger had “serious pre-existing health conditions,” while Wolfgang Seitz also had health issues before suffering his heart attack. Stefan Berendes reportedly died of natural causes, though specific details have not been released.
Kay Gottschalk, AfD’s deputy state chairman in North Rhine-Westphalia, attempted to calm speculation while acknowledging the unusual nature of the deaths. “What I have in front of me – but this is only partial information – does not support these suspicions at the moment,” he told Politico’s Berlin Playbook podcast.
Gottschalk added there was “no indication” of “murder or anything similar” but confirmed the party would “investigate these cases with the necessary sensitivity and care.” He urged against “immediately entering the territory of conspiracy theories.”
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