Israel is once again escalating on multiple fronts, possibly preparing to embark on a new war away from the Gaza Strip.

Iran remains at the center of this escalation. On October 26, Israel’s Mossad spy agency accused the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of orchestrating a string of recent attacks on Jewish sites in Western countries.

The agency named Sardar Ammar, a senior commander of the IRGC’s external operations branch known as the Quds Force, as the mastermind behind the attacks.

Later on October 31, a report from the Hebrew news website Walla said that the Mossad and the Israeli military are preparing for a “developing threat” from pro-Iranian factions in Iraq. The report alleged that the IRGC have been investing significant resources in “pro-Iranian militias and terrorist infrastructure in Iraq,” so that, on the day of command, they can attack Israel from the air and by land.

These claims go beyond typical accusations, and appear to be a part of a wider media campaign meant to fabricate a casus belli for a new war against Iran or one of its allies.

During a televised interview on November 1, Iraqi Defence Minister Thabet al-Abbasi disclosed that United States Secretary of War Pete Hegseth directly warned the country of imminent military operations in the region, urging it to restrain pro-Iranian factions operating within its borders. The threat shows that Israel is serious about escalating.

Israel’s next war will not likely, however, start from Iran or Iraq, but rather from Lebanon. On November 4, the Israeli Security Cabinet held a meeting to assess possible military options against Hezbollah over alleged “violations” of the ceasefire agreement brokered last year by the United States.

Officials from the Israeli military presented several operational options, including intensified strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.

It’s worth noting that Israeli strikes killed over 330 members of Hezbollah since the ceasefire came into effect close to a year ago. October saw an increase in Israeli strikes in response to alleged “violations” by the group, with over 20 getting killed.

Another high-level meeting attended by Netanyahu recently focused on the growing threat posed by the Houthis (Ansar Allah) in Yemen.

All in all, the de-escalation that started with the ceasefire in Gaza last month will not likely last for long. Recent developments indicate that Israel will begin a new war against Hezbollah in the near future. Any attempt by the Houthis or pro-Iranian factions in Iraq to support the group, will likely be met with Israeli escalation. Depending on the results of this next war, Israel could consider a new attack on Iran itself later.

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