Dr. Adam Stulberg provides his analysis of the situation in Ukraine which has become a war of attrition characterized by constant surprise for all participants. The Russian military is learning from its mistakes. He discusses and quantifies the use of red lines by Russia, how they can be interpreted as hollow threats, but how they can also be understood as a different and opaque approach by Moscow to competitive bargaining which blurs lines between peace and war and increases uncertainty, which is doubly dangerous. The Russians see sanctions as part of a new definition of war (e.g. information, energy diplomacy, hybrid, next generation) and thus far have solidly absorbed the shocks. Energy is becoming less and less a potent instrument of political and strategic influence. Domestic politics is going to be playing a bigger role in the war going forward given the elections taking place in many countries.
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About Dr. Adam Stulberg
Dr. Stulberg is Sam Nunn Professor and Chair in the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs. He teaches undergraduate and graduate courses on international security, Russia/Eurasian politics and security affairs, nuclear (non)proliferation, and energy and international security, as well as inter-disciplinary courses on science, technology, and international security policy. His current research focuses on the geopolitics of oil and gas networks, energy security dilemmas and statecraft in Eurasia, Russia and "gray zone" conflicts, new approaches to strategic stability, internationalization of the nuclear fuel cycle, and implications of emerging technologies for strategic stability and international security.
*Podcast intro music is from the song "The Queens Jig" by "Musicke & Mirth" from their album "Music for Two Lyra Viols": http://musicke-mirth.de/en/recordings.html (available on iTunes or Amazon)
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